10-05-2026

Is Gold and Silver Preparing for a Major Breakout?

Geopolitical Tensions, Technical Signals, and Smart Money Accumulation Point Toward a Bigger Move

Global financial markets remained on edge this week as geopolitical tensions once again took center stage. The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran continues to create uncertainty, particularly after fresh concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes.

Iran’s response to recent U.S. peace proposals remains unclear, while reports suggest that shipping companies are becoming increasingly cautious due to potential disruptions in the Gulf region. Any escalation in this area could directly impact crude oil prices, inflation expectations, and overall global risk sentiment — all of which tend to support safe-haven assets such as Gold and Silver.

Apart from Middle East tensions, investors are also closely watching ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict developments, global trade uncertainty, and concerns regarding slowing economic growth across major economies. Historically, such macroeconomic uncertainty has supported precious metals.

However, the most important observation this week is that despite multiple negative headlines, Gold and Silver have not witnessed aggressive selling pressure. Instead, price action suggests that institutional players may be accumulating positions at lower levels.

MCX Gold Outlook: Strong Support Holding Firm

MCX Gold is currently trading above the critical support zone of 1,48,000–1,50,000. This zone has repeatedly acted as a strong buying area, indicating that large participants are defending lower levels.

From a broader technical perspective, Gold appears to be maintaining its larger bullish structure.

Key Technical Observations:

• Price is consolidating near the 20 EMA
• 50 EMA continues to provide immediate support
• 200 EMA remains firmly bullish
• RSI is attempting to move above neutral levels
• MACD is nearing a bullish crossover
• Elliott Wave structure suggests potential Wave (5) upside expansion

If Gold sustains momentum, the next major upside targets could be:

1,60,000 → 1,68,000 → 1,76,000

10-05-2026

MCX Silver Outlook: Breakout Setup Developing

Silver continues to outperform during periods of industrial demand optimism and safe-haven buying.

Currently, MCX Silver is holding above its major support zone of: 2,30,000–2,40,000

The current consolidation phase indicates volatility compression, which often leads to sharp directional moves.

Technical Signals in Silver:

• ABC corrective pattern nearing completion
• Triangle compression breakout setup
• RSI showing recovery signs
• MACD flattening toward bullish crossover
• Strong support near moving averages

If Silver manages to sustain above: 2,65,000

The next upside targets may be:

2,75,000 → 2,90,000

10-05-2026

How Should Traders Position Themselves?

Gold Strategy:

Buy on Dips: 1,48,000–1,50,000

Breakout Confirmation: Above 1,55,000

Upside Targets: 1,59,000–1,65,000+

Silver Strategy:

Buy on Dips: 2,30,000–2,40,000

Breakout Confirmation: Above 2,65,000

Upside Targets: 2,75,000–2,90,000+

10-05-2026

Disclaimer

Vikash Bagaria – SEBI Registered Research Analyst (INH300008155)
BSE Enlistment No. – 5426

The securities and commodities quoted in this article are for illustration purposes only and are not recommendatory.

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