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Crude Oil- the Big Monthly Picture
25-02-2026
Crude Oil is not just consolidating — it is sitting at a multi-timeframe decision point.
When weekly and monthly trendlines align with price action compression, markets usually don’t stay quiet for long.
Here’s what the charts are telling us.
1.Price Action Structure: For months, crude has been trading in a defined range:
• Strong base near 5000–5100
• Supply pressure near 6000–6200
• Gradual formation of higher lows
This is classic compression.
When price builds pressure near resistance, the eventual move tends to be sharp.
Weekly Trendline – The Real Trigger
On the weekly chart, crude is approaching a falling trendline drawn from prior major highs. Every rally so far has faced resistance here.
A sustained weekly close above 6200 + trendline breakout can shift the structure bullish and open room toward: 6700 → 7000
If rejected again, range continues. This is where Smart money reacts.
Monthly Structure – Bigger Picture Still Intact
On the monthly chart, crude is still holding above its long-term rising base near 5000.
As long as this zone holds:
• Long-term structure remains stable
• Accumulation phase continues
Break below 5000 → structure weakens.
2.Moving Averages – Early Shift
• Price holding above 20 & 50 DMA
• 50 DMA turning upward
• Attempt to sustain above 200 WMA
This suggests transition from sideways to potential bullish bias. Moving averages are slowly supporting the price — but confirmation will come only after breakout.
Important Resistance Zone: 6000–6200 is the key level
This zone has:1. Previous supply, 2. Fibonacci resistance, 3. Falling trendline resistance on Monthly as well as Weekly Charts.
Bullish Setup: Buy on sustained breakout above 6100
Targets: 6350 → 6800 → 7200
Stop: Below 5800
Bearish Setup:
Sell below 5500
Targets: 5200 → 4800
Stop: Above 5850
Final Thought: Crude Oil is standing at weekly and monthly trendline resistance. These zones decide multi-week direction.
25-02-2026
Disclaimer :-
VIKASH BAGARIA ---SEBI Research Analyst INH300008155, BSE Enlistment No-5426
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